I wish I could have bought a Tesla.
I’m still super-glad that I switched from an ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) car to an EV. I do get a little twinge when I see a Prius Prime plug-in-hybrid, however, I have to go back to the big deciding factor:
$300/month.
Yep. That was the number. I couldn’t do it with my initial reservation .. maybe I could have done it with the 2019 base Model 3, however, I love technology, and … that would not have been honest with myself. At least the technology package and AP2, which brings that up to $43k.
However, before I get too far in to my pity party, I need to review:
| ICE Car | Used Leaf in my Price Range | My future Tesla |
| No Gas! |
ditto | |
| Super quiet + Jet engine sounds |
ditto | |
| Nice acceleration |
Even better acceleration by the numbers | |
| Remote start A/C and Heater including a timed heater start in the garage because no emissions. |
ditto | |
| All-Around-View Camera |
Could happen | |
| Inexpensive maintenance – no oil changes, etc. Service every 18k miles. |
ditto, except about $600/y with prepay options. | |
| Prius got to 15 cents per mile. | Inexpensive per-mile costs – 3 cents per mile |
ditto |
| Many inexpensive ICE cars available. | Reasonable Car Cost – 28 cents per mile (assuming 60k miles payoff) |
Not there yet. Best I could do was around $1/mi at the moment. |
| Can fit many things | Awkward, can’t really fit all the stuff that I could fit in a Prius. | I hear its better. |
| Easy around-town range as long as you visit your gas station | 85mi is almost enough. Almost. There are chargers that make things better. | Much better ranges |
| Long Distance Travel. | Not in the Midwest. I can perhaps get to Cincinnati, if I go at 60mph. | Superior infrastructure and range. |
To be fair, the newer Nissan Leaf had a better range, which solves some of the problems, and if I had done a lease, I could have gotten as low as $300/mo. However, there’s another angle – I wanted to experience the frustration of a short range EV. So that I have a realistic sense of what was possible/what is not, so I can point people at stuff that’s even better than what I have.
How close till my future Tesla?
If I back track the $ trail – lets say $400/mo (car payment, I’m not adding the $90 in gas that I don’t pay anymore) – at 3.5% APY that gets me to around $21k. How long till a used Tesla gets down to $21k?
If you go to https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-trends/Tesla-Model-S-d2039 and play with the dates, I can currently find this chart:
See that little rise at the end? Annoying. And, It seems to take about 3 years to drop .. about 40%. Also note they have no info on price trends for model 3’s and model X’s.
Another tracker: Used car listings on carguru.com showed the cheapest model three at $51k.
Another tracker: Used car listings on Carmax … only show Model S’s, and they are way more expensive than the used cars at Tesla.com.
Another track would be a much larger car payment, but .. that’s not something I’m willing to bet 5 years of cash flow on right now.
Its safe to say .. not soon.
So here I am. I DO love that I’m driving an EV; Yes, its a bit hard and clunky in some ways; but give it a few years or so (time goes by faster as I get older) and lets see.
