I wish I could have bought a Tesla.
I’m still super-glad that I switched from an ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) car to an EV. I do get a little twinge when I see a Prius Prime plug-in-hybrid, however, I have to go back to the big deciding factor:
Yep. That was the number. I couldn’t do it with my initial reservation .. maybe I could have done it with the 2019 base Model 3, however, I love technology, and … that would not have been honest with myself. At least the technology package and AP2, which brings that up to $43k.
However, before I get too far in to my pity party, I need to review:
|ICE Car||Used Leaf in my Price Range||My future Tesla|
|Super quiet + Jet engine sounds
||Even better acceleration by the numbers|
|Remote start A/C and Heater
including a timed heater start in the garage because no emissions.
– no oil changes, etc. Service every 18k miles.
|ditto, except about $600/y with prepay options.|
|Prius got to 15 cents per mile.||Inexpensive per-mile costs
– 3 cents per mile
|Many inexpensive ICE cars available.||Reasonable Car Cost
– 28 cents per mile (assuming 60k miles payoff)
|Not there yet. Best I could do was around $1/mi at the moment.|
|Can fit many things||Awkward, can’t really fit all the stuff that I could fit in a Prius.||I hear its better.|
|Easy around-town range as long as you visit your gas station||85mi is almost enough. Almost. There are chargers that make things better.||Much better ranges|
|Long Distance Travel.||Not in the Midwest. I can perhaps get to Cincinnati, if I go at 60mph.||Superior infrastructure and range.|
To be fair, the newer Nissan Leaf had a better range, which solves some of the problems, and if I had done a lease, I could have gotten as low as $300/mo. However, there’s another angle – I wanted to experience the frustration of a short range EV. So that I have a realistic sense of what was possible/what is not, so I can point people at stuff that’s even better than what I have.
How close till my future Tesla?
If I back track the $ trail – lets say $400/mo (car payment, I’m not adding the $90 in gas that I don’t pay anymore) – at 3.5% APY that gets me to around $21k. How long till a used Tesla gets down to $21k?
If you go to https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-trends/Tesla-Model-S-d2039 and play with the dates, I can currently find this chart:
See that little rise at the end? Annoying. And, It seems to take about 3 years to drop .. about 40%. Also note they have no info on price trends for model 3’s and model X’s.
Another tracker: Used car listings on carguru.com showed the cheapest model three at $51k.
Another tracker: Used car listings on Carmax … only show Model S’s, and they are way more expensive than the used cars at Tesla.com.
Another track would be a much larger car payment, but .. that’s not something I’m willing to bet 5 years of cash flow on right now.
Its safe to say .. not soon.
So here I am. I DO love that I’m driving an EV; Yes, its a bit hard and clunky in some ways; but give it a few years or so (time goes by faster as I get older) and lets see.